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Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies

Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies

From Excel Sales Forecasting For Dummies by Conrad Carlberg
For confidently and quickly forecasting your sales, Excel is an effective tool. Use some simple rules for establishing your baseline (past data); and then the Excel sales forecasting toolpak, forecast functions, or LINEST function will help you predict your sales with ease.

The Analysis ToolPak in Excel Sales Forecasting

The Analysis ToolPak in Excel sales forecasting figures out what's going on with your data without your having to enter formulas. Excel's Analysis ToolPak has three useful tools for directly forecasting — Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, and Regression — along with others that can help. Here's a list of some tools that are part of the Analysis ToolPak:
ToolWhat It Does
ANOVAThere are actually three different ANOVA tools. None is specifically useful for forecasting, but each of the tools can help you understand the data set that underlies your forecast. The ANOVA tools help you distinguish among samples — for example, do people who live in Tennessee like a particular brand of car better than those who live in Vermont?
CorrelationThis tool is an important one, regardless of the method you use to do your forecast. If you have more than one variable, it can tell you how strongly the two variables are related (plus or minus 1.0 is strong, 0.0 means no relationship). If you have only one variable, it can tell you how strongly one time period is related to another.
Descriptive StatisticsUse the Descriptive Statistics tool to get a handle on things like the average and the standard deviation of your data. Understanding these basic statistics is important so you know what's going on with your forecasts.
Exponential SmoothingI hate this tool's name — it sounds ominous and intimidating, which the tool is not. When you have just one variable — something such as sales revenue or unit sales — you look to a previous actual value to predict the next one (maybe the previous month, or the same month in the previous year). All this tool does is adjust the next forecast by using the error in the prior forecast.
Moving AverageA moving average shows the average of results over time. The first one might be the average for January, February, and March; the second would then be the average for February, March, and April; and so on. This method of forecasting tends to focus on the signal (what's really going on in the baseline) and to minimize the noise (random fluctuations in the baseline).
RegressionRegression is closely related to correlation. Use this tool to forecast one variable (such as sales) from another (such as date or advertising). It gives you a couple of numbers to use in an equation, like Sales = 50000 + (10 * Date).

Excel Sales Forecasting Functions

Give these sales forecasting functions in Excel a good baseline and you can get a handle on future sales business. Some Excel forecast functions and their actions appear in the following chart — keep it handy:
FunctionWhat It Does
CORRELThe worksheet version of the Analysis ToolPak's Correlation tool. The difference is that CORREL recalculates when the input data changes, and the Correlation tool doesn't. Example: =CORREL(A1:A50, B1:B50). Also, CORREL gives you only one correlation, but the Correlation tool can give you a whole matrix of correlations.
LINESTYou can use this function instead of the Analysis ToolPak's Regression tool. (The function's name is an abbreviation of linear estimate.) For simple regression, select a range of two columns and five rows. You need to array-enter this function. Type, for example, =LINEST(A1:A50, B1:B50,,TRUE) and then press Ctrl+Shift+Enter.
TRENDThis function is handy because it gives you forecast values directly, whereas LINEST gives you an equation that you have to use to get the forecast. For example, use =TREND(A1:A50,B1:B50,B51) where you're forecasting a new value on the basis of what's in B51.
FORECASTThe FORECAST function is similar to the TREND function. The syntax is a little different. For example, use =FORECAST(B51,A1:A50,B1:B50) where you're forecasting a new value on the basis of the value in B51. Also, FORECAST handles only one predictor, but TREND can handle multiple predictors.

The LINEST Function in Excel Sales Forecasting

The LINEST (or linear estimate) function in Excel sales forecasting uses formulas to calculate a regression equation and related statistics. This chart shows the information the Excel LINEST function will give you:
Column 1Column 2
Row 1The coefficient you multiply times the X valuesThe intercept
Row 2The standard error of the coefficientThe standard error of the intercept
Row 3The R-squared value, or coefficient of determination.The standard error of estimate
Row 4The F-ratioThe degrees of freedom
Row 5The sum of squares for the regressionThe sum of squares for the residual

Setting Up Your Baseline in Excel Sales Forecasting

You need to provide a solid baseline (history) in order for your Excel forecast functions to work accurately in Excel sales forecasting. This chart shows you some ways to arrange data for your baseline:
The IssueHow to Deal with the Issue
OrderPut your historical data in chronological order, earliest to latest.
Time periodsUse time periods of approximately equal length: all weeks, all months, all quarters, or all years.
Same location in timeIf you're sampling, then sample from the same place. Don't take January 1, February 15, March 21. Instead, use January 1, February 1, March 1, and so on.
Missing dataMissing data is not allowed. If you have every month except, say, June, find out what June's sales were. If you can't, get the best estimate possible — or start your forecasting with July.


Source: http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/excel-sales-forecasting-for-dummies-cheat-sheet.html





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Performance appraisal examples


Performance appraisal examples
Samples / examples of performance appraisal are popular in staff / employee appraisal with organizations, human resource department, managers.
Organizations, departments of human resources, managers often use examples/samples of performance appraisal to make assessments on their staff/employees. The below information will help you form an efficient performance appraisal.
This information will help you develop your effective Performance appraisal.
I. List of appraisal forms
Following are such free samples or examples of job specifications that you can use:
1. Performance appraisal form
I/ RATING SCALES OF PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL FORM:
We can use scales as follows for this performance appraisal form.
1. Unsatisfactory: Major improvements needed.
2. Needs Improvement: Less than Satisfactory, could be doing better.
3. Meets Expectations: Performing duties as directed with minimal Supervision.
4. Excellent: Performing all duties in a cost-effective manner with positive, measurable results.
5. Outstanding: Performing at a level above and beyond the duties of the current position’s requirements.
II/ CONTENTS OF PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL FORM:
1. Quality of work
• Consider accuracy, thoroughness, effectiveness.
• Pressure, ability to meet standards of quality.
• Use of time and volume of work accomplished.
• Work output matches the expectations established.
2. Quantity of work
• Competence, thoroughness, and efficiency of work regardless of volume.
• Neatness and accuracy.
3. Teamwork:
• Establish and maintain effective working relationship with others.
• Shares information and resources with others
• Follows instructions of supervisor and respond to requests from others in the team in a helpful manner.
• Contributing work and effort to group performance to meet agreed upon objectives and achieve team success
4. Job knowledge
• Application of appropriate level of technical and procedural knowledge in specific field
• Degree of technical competence
• Understanding of job procedures, methods, facts and information related to assignments.
• Perform duties with minimal supervision but seek guidance where and when appropriate to the job, consults the appropriate staff
5. Initiative
• Consider the extent to which the employee sets own constructive work practice and recommends and creates own procedures.
• Self-starter, develop and implement new methods, procedures, solutions, concepts, designs and/or applications of existing designs or procedures.
• Accepts additional challenges and responsibilities and willingly assist others, self-reliant.
• Completes assignment on time.
6. Interpersonal relations
• Consider the extent to which the employee is cooperative, considerate, and tactful in dealing with supervisors, subordinates, peers, faculty, students and others.
7. Health and safety compliance
• The degree to which he or she complies with or over sees the compliance with university safety rules.
• The following are also to be completed for supervisory personnel and members of the administrative staff.
8. Communications abilities
Performance appraisal of communications include elements as:
• Ability to listen and understand information;
• Presents information in a clear and concise manner.
• Knows appropriate way of communicating with immediate superiors and the management
• Demonstrates respect for all individuals in all forms of communication
• Regardless of their background or culture;
9. Planning and organizing :
• Adapting to changes and using resources effectively;
• Maintains confidentiality as appropriate.
• Setting objectives, establishing priorities, developing plans ;
• Arranging work schedules and prioritizing work to meet deadlines.
• Know when to ask for clarification before proceeding on a work project.
10. Problem analysis and decision making
• Anticipating problems and facilitate problem resolution.
• Willingness to make necessary and immediate decisions given incomplete information.
• Understanding practical and workable solutions.
• Recognizing when a decision is necessary, asking for input, making decisions and providing information and feedback in a timely manner.
11. Staff development
• The extent to which the individual provides guidance and opportunities to his or her staff for their development and advancement in the university.
12. Dependability
Performance appraisal of dependability include elements as:
• Starts work at appropriate time.
• Respects time allowed for breaks and lunch.
• Follows policies for requesting and reporting time off.
• Helps ensure work duties are covered when absent.
• Consider the extent to which the employee completes assignments on time and carries out instructions.
• Employee’s presence can be relied upon for planning purposes.
• Attendance and punctuality meets supervisor’s requirements.
2. Manager performance appraisal form
I / MANAGER INFORMATION:
• Name
• Date
• Job Title
• Date of Last Review
• Department:
• Appraiser Name
II/ PERFORMANCE ACHIEVEMENT
• You should design table with columns as No, agreed objectives, weight, result, total score.
• This table is used for objective performance.
III/ COMPETENCIES
1. Identify competencies needed for job, for example:
• Technical skills
• Financial skills
• Decision making ability
• Analytical ability / problem solving
• Initiative/perseverance/enthusiasm
• Flexibility
• Written communication skills
• Oral communication skills
• Customer focus
• Teamwork
• Organizational ability.
• Negotiating skills
2. Rating scales can be:
• 1 = Exceptional
• 2 – Strong
• 3 = Fully Competent
• 4 = Continued Development
• 5 = Poor
• N = Not Applicable
IV/ MANAGEMENT SKILLS
1. Staff Development/ Mentoring
2. Influencing Skills
3. Analytical/Conceptual Thinking
4. Ability to Lead a Team
5. Using Business Acumen
6. Coaching skill etc
V/ DISCUSSIONS
1. Strengths (examples of where individual has excelled).
2. Developmental needs (areas that need strengthening, additional experience/exposure).
VI/ OVERALL RATING
1. Rating scales
• Exceptional
• Strong
• Fully Competent
• Continued Development
• Poor
• New to Position
2. Definition of each element:
• Fully Competent (solid performance). Consistently meets expectations. Two-thirds of your employees should fall within this category.
• Continued Development. Needs development in current position. Overall performance is somewhat lower than expected for the current position.
• Poor (unsatisfactory performance). Performance is clearly below what is expected at current position/level.
• Exceptional (clearly outstanding performance). Performance falls within top 5 – 10 % of employees at his/her level.
• Strong (excellent performance). Performance falls within top 15% of the employees at his/her level.
• New to Position. Employee has been in position for less than six (6) months.
VII/ MANAGER COMMENTS
VIII/ SIGNATURES:
The employee’s signature below indicates that a performance development discussion was conducted on the specified date, but does not necessarily indicate agreement with the content of the session.
Manager / Supervisor Signature Supervisor Signature
Date Date.
Distribution: (1) Copy to HR departmental Personnel File (2) Copy to line manager. (3) Copy to Manager / Supervisor.
3. Employee performance appraisal form
I / EMPLOYEE INFORMATION:
• Name
• Date
• Job Title
• Date of Last Review
• Department:
• Appraiser Name
II/ PERFORMANCE ACHIEVEMENT
• You should design table with columns as No, agreed objectives, weight, result, total score.
• This table is used for objective performance
III/ COMPETENCIES
1. Identify competencies needed for job, for example:
• Negotiating skills
• Technical skills
• Financial skills
• Decision making ability
• Analytical ability / problem solving
• Initiative/perseverance/enthusiasm
• Flexibility
• Written communication skills
• Oral communication skills
• Customer focus
• Teamwork
• Organizational ability.
2. Rating scales can be:
1 = Exceptional
2 – Strong
3 = Fully Competent
4 = Continued Development
5 = Poor
N = Not Applicable
IV/ DISCUSSIONS
1. Strengths (examples of where individual has excelled).
2. Developmental needs (areas that need strengthening, additional experience/exposure).
V/ OVERALL RATING
1. Rating scales
• Exceptional
• Strong
• Fully Competent
• Continued Development
• Poor
• New to Position
2. Definition of each element:
• Exceptional (clearly outstanding performance). Performance falls within top 5 – 10 % of employees at his/her level.
• Strong (excellent performance). Performance falls within top 15% of the employees at his/her level.
• Fully Competent (solid performance). Consistently meets expectations. Two-thirds of your employees should fall within this category.
• Continued Development. Needs development in current position. Overall performance is somewhat lower than expected for the current position.
• Poor (unsatisfactory performance). Performance is clearly below what is expected at current position/level.
• New to Position. Employee has been in position for less than six (6) months.
VI/ EMPLOYEE COMMENTS
———————–
———————–
VII/ SIGNATURES:
The employee’s signature below indicates that a performance development discussion was conducted on the specified date, but does not necessarily indicate agreement with the content of the session.
Employee Signature Supervisor Signature
Date Date.
Distribution: (1) Copy to HR departmental Personnel File (2) Copy to line manager. (3) Copy to Employee.
4. Essay evaluation form
HR department can design questions as follows and send to line manager for appraising.
1. Please give examples of the employee’s ineffective behavior
——–
——–
2. Please give examples of the employee’s effective behavior
——–
——–
3. What steps have been taken (or will be taken) to modify ineffective behavior?
——–
——–
4. What are additional comments related to the conditions and circumstances of effective/ineffective behavior?
——–
——–
5. Does the jobholder’s job description need revision? And how to?
——–
——–
6. Jobholder’s comments
——–
——–
5. Forced Choice form
1. Design question Forced Choice
Requirements of questions: both statements in the pair may be positive or negative.
• Learns quickly: ____work is reliable____
• Performance is exemplary: ____usually tardy____
• Quality of work: ____quality is good____
• Absent too often: ____works hard____
2. Deployment of Forced Choice form
• This form is conducted by line manager.
• The rater is required to choose the most descriptive statement in each pair of statements.
6. Weighted checklist form
This method describes a performance appraisal method where the jobs being evaluated based on descriptive statements about effective and ineffective behavior on jobs.
1. Identify question:
Based on elements of job performance, you can design questions as follows (for example)
• Employee works overtime when asked to
• Employee keeps work station well organized
• Employee listens to advice but seldom follows it
• Employee cooperatively assists coworkers who need help
• Employee plans actions before beginning work
2. Design table of checklist
• You should design a table with 5 columns: No, Question, Yes / No, Weight.
• Then, Using benchmarking to identify weight of each question.
• Send this form to employees for answer (stick yes or no).
• Identify result by summarizing all points at weight column.
7. Rating scale form
This style of performance appraisal is made base on building a set of categories designed to elicit information about a quantitative or a qualitative attribute.
Rating scale form 1
1. Elements of the rating scale
Elements for performance appraisal can includes as follows.
• Initiative
• Overall Output
• Attendance
• Attitude
• Cooperation
• Quality of work
• Quantity of work
• Dependability
For each element, you can ask some questions.
2. Rating scales:
Rating scales of each element above can include scales as follows:
• Excellent – 5 points
• Good – 4 points
• Acceptable – 3 points
• Fair – 2 points
• Poor – 1 point
Rating scale form 2
Combining words and numbers in a 1-to-5 rating scale provides an effective method for measuring the pluses and minuses of everything from employee performance to the relative importance of personal and business options. The 5-point scale forces a sharper focus than is possible with the popular 1-to-10 scale. Depending on what is being rated, take the time to assign appropriate words to each number. Here are four examples.
To evaluate any overall performance (a speaker, a worker, a seminar, a laptop):
1 = Poor
2 = Fair
3 = Good
4 = Very Good
5 = Excellent
When deciding which of several factors should be included in a major decision, rate each factor as:
1 = Unimportant
2 = Slightly important
3 = Important
4 = Very important
5 = Critical
If whether certain events happen or not will impact your decision, rate the possibilities as:
1 = Won’t happen
2 = Might happen
3 = Likely to happen
4 = Very likely to happen
5 = Sure to happen
Even an employee’s or colleague’s attitude can be rated with a word/number scale:
1 = Disruptive
2 = Uncooperative
3 = Neutral
4 = Cooperative
5 = Enthusiastic
8. Self appraisal form
This is the style of performance appraisal in which employees make assessments on their own working performances.
1. Tips for self – appraisal
• Be honest: When talking about your achievements or failures; stay honest and be true. You should not overstate your strong points or ignore your weak points. In addition, do not have any personal ideas on others.
• Well-prepared: Before the meeting, you are advised to have good preparations. Put everything needed in an appropriate order; prepare all the evidences and references.
• Be objective: In self-appraisal, being objective is of great importance. Do not just overstate or just ignore your accomplishments or failures. Be focused and concise in any idea you give and if allowed, provide them with possible examples, references or dates. For instance, it will be much nicer to say: “I replied all questions within 48 hours”, instead of saying “I offered good service to the customers.”
• Positive attitude: Within the process of appraisal, try to have a positive attitude. Prove that you are a cooperative staff. Be willing to take accountability for your failures and accomplishments also. Show your enthusiasm to make improvements in the future and calmly take all recommendations. Do not give any complaint or have any negative attitude.
• Cover all the aspects: In addition to your strong points, weak points, failures or achievements, try to quote such chances of development and improvement you would like to have. Make recommendations for resolve the arising issues. Valuate your abilities, attitudes and skills as well as competencies.
• Seek future responsibilities: Based on your job description and such valuation of the KSA’s, make short-term and long-term plans for your future working year. Do not hesitate to seek tasks in addition to such current accountabilities of your job. This will bring out chances for personal improvement while helping you contribute to the productivity of the company.
In self appraisal process, you should quote your achievements, goals gained, the failures as well as your own improvement (including new skills achieved, such plans for the future…), the difficulties during the working period, such effort to resolve them, recommendations, areas of training as well as development suitable for you.
2. An example of Self-Appraisal
Self appraisal form
Employee: _____________________________
Date: _________________________________
Company: _____________________________
Position Title: __________________________
Review Period: _________________________
Office: ________________________________
Department: ___________________________
From/To: ______________________________
I. Job descriptions and responsibilities:
__________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
II. Specify ways that you feel you met or exceeded job requirements and any reasons why.
1. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
3. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
III. Specify the ways that you feel you did not meet job requirements and any reasons why.
1. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
3. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
IV. In what specific areas would you like to improve your job performance?
1. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
3. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
V. List the steps you would like to take to improve your preparation for future
opportunities.
1. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
3. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
VI. What job-related goals would you like to accomplish in the next 6 (12) months?
1. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
3. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
VII. List additional items you would like to discuss.
1. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
2. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
3. ______________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________
Employee’s Signature: ____________________Date: ______________________
Reviewer’s Signature: ____________________Date: ______________________
Reviewer’s Manager’s Signature: ____________Date: ______________________
9. 360 degree performance appraisal
1. Definition of 360 degree performance appraisal
In the formatted from of 360-degree performance appraisals, the performance of an employee will be assessed based on ideas of many other different people, for example customers, suppliers, peers and direct reports. If the assessed is a manager, his/her staff will be often asked for feedback on how that manager is doing his task. In case of using 360-degree performance appraisal, it is vital that the process be implemented by the manager of Human Resources Department so that the subordinate reviewers (or staff) are made sure that all their assessments on performance are kept anonymous.
2. What’s 360 degree measures?
• 360 degree measures manners and capacities.
• 360 degree improves such skills as listening, planning and goal-setting.
• 360 degree concentrates on subjective areas, for example efficiencies of teamwork, character, and leadership.
• 360 degree supplies on the way others think about a specific staff.
3. Advantages of 360 degree appraisal
• Offer a more comprehensive view towards the performance of employees.
• Improve credibility of performance appraisal.
• Such colleague’s feedback will help strengthen self-development.
• Increases responsibilities of employees to their customers.
• The mix of ideas can give a more accurate assessment.
• Opinions gathered from lots of staff are sure to be more persuasive.
• Not only manager should make assessments on its staff performance but other colleagues should do, too.
• People who undervalue themselves are often motivated by feedback from others.
• If more staff takes part in the process of performance appraisal, the organizational culture of the company will become more honest.
4. Disadvantages of 360 degree appraisal
• Taking a lot of time, and being complex in administration
• Extension of exchange feedback can cause troubles and tensions to several staff.
• There is requirement for training and important effort in order to achieve efficient working.
• It will be very hard to figure out the results.
• Feedback can be useless if it is not carefully and smoothly dealt.
• Can impose an environment of suspicion if the information is not openly and honestly managed.
5. Who should conduct 360 degree performance appraisal?
• Subordinates.
• Peers.
• Managers (i.e. superior).
• Team members.
• Customers.
• Suppliers/ vendors.
• Anyone who comes into contact with the employee and can provide valuable insights and information.
6. 360 degree appraisal has four components:
• Self appraisal
• Subordinate’s appraisal
• Peer appraisal.
• Superior’s appraisal
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